IATA Cargo Day: 2012 forecast downgraded
Maritime trade has out-performed air in the last 18 months, with a shift to ocean evident as products mature and the value-to-weight argument no longer justifies airfreight rates.
IATA predicts the global airline passenger market will slow from six percent growth this year to four percent next, but that the cargo market will stay broadly flat through 2012. Even that looks optimistic set against the OECD’s prediction of doom if Europe cannot find a way through its financial troubles. Should the Eurozone crisis deteriorate into a full-blown banking crisis, OECD estimates the EU will descend into a deep recession and the U.S. into a small one, pulling down growth in China and other emerging economies.
Air Cargo World correspondent Martin Roebuck has been on the scene in Geneva, reporting IATA's cargo moves.