The installed freighter base in the Middle East will grow 4.4 percent annually for the next 10 years, rising from 71 freighters in 2011 to 109 in 2021, according to an analysis by OAG. According to the group’s report, the region can expect 32 new 777-200Fs, 17 new 747-8Fs and seven new A330-200Fs in the next decade.
Most of the other growth will be through 747-400s, A300-600s and A330-200Fs, OAG projects. Boeing will increase its market share by 7 percent to 77 percent over the next 10 years, while Airbus’ market share will decrease by 6 points to 23 percent.
The majority of these planes will go to the UAE (43 percent), with Saudi Arabia (13 percent) and Qatar (11 percent) also receiving a large amount of the pie.
The Middle East will own 4 percent of the global jet freighter market over the next decade. North America is predicted to make up a commanding 46 percent, with Western Europe accounting for 17 percent and the Asia-Pacific 15 percent, according to OAG. Africa will take 3 percent of the market,with Eastern Europe and India owning a respective market share of 2 percent and 1 percent. The Middle East growth prediction is slightly higher than the average 4.1-percent compound annual growth rate for worldwide freighter growth.
OAG predicts that in the next 10 years, freighters worldwide will grow from 1,755 aircraft in 2011 to 2,629 vehicles in 2021. This increase will come in the form of 631 new aircraft and 768 conversions, the majority of which will be 757s. The sharpest increase in freighters will happen in the Asia-Pacific region, according to OAG. India is expected to see a CAGR of 10.5 percent, and China’s freighters will increase by 9.2 percent. The majority of these planes, OAG revealed, will consist of 777-200Fs, 747-8Fs and A330-200Fs.
Worldwide, 210 deliveries of -200Fs and 162 deliveries of -8Fs are anticipated in the next 10 years. Airbus will deliver 132 330-200Fs to carriers around the world in the next decade. Surveying the current landscape, OAG found that 61 percent of the freighters currently in operation around the world are wide-bodies, 37 percent are narrow-bodies and 2 percent are regional aircraft.
Wide-body aircraft will increase by 10 percent in the next 10 years, but narrow-bodies will decrease to 28 percent, and regional aircraft will be cut in half. Of the nearly 570 aircraft to be retired in the next decade, 50 percent of the total will consist of 727, 747 and 757 planes.
In the Middle East, the majority of the retired planes will come from Boeing’s 747 family. OAG predicts 11of these planes will be sent to retirement by 2021, with six 727s, two 737-200s and two 757s also being taken out of service. Seven A300s will also be retired.
With these significant increases in freighters come the increased cost of aircraft modifications, new components, and line, engine and airframe maintenance. During the next 10 years, the amount of money spent on MRO will rise from $5.4 billion in 2012 to almost $8.6 billion in 2021, according to OAG.
The biggest maintenance cost over the next 10 years in the Middle East will be engine repair, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.1 percent. The cost allotted for components and line maintenance will also grow. The least-costly problem, according to OAG data, will be modifications.
Even with all the money reserved for maintenance on the Middle East’s aging aircraft, maintenance and repair spend in the region over the next 10 years will come to 0.6-percent less than the world average. North America (3.1 percent) and Latin America (0.5 percent) will dole out the least amount of money for maintenance, and the Asia-Pacific region (10.3 percent) and Eastern Europe (9.2 percent) will see the highest amount spent on maintenance over the next 10 years.