The installed freighter base in the Middle East will grow 4.4 percent annually for the next 10 years, rising from 71 freighters in 2011 to 109 in 2021, according to an analysis by OAG.
OAG found that the region can expect 32 new 777-200Fs, 17 new 747-8Fs and seven new A330-200Fs in the next decade. Most of the other growth will be through 747-400s, A300-600s and A330-200Fs. Boeing will increase its market share by 7 percent to 77 percent over the next 10 years, while Airbus’ market share will decrease by 6 points to 23 percent. The majority of these planes will go to the UAE (43 percent), with Saudi Arabia (13 percent) and Qatar (11 percent) also receiving a large amount of the pie.
The Middle East will own 4 percent of the global jet freighter market over the next decade. OAG found that North America will make up a commanding 46 percent, with western Europe accounting for 17 percent and the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 15 percent. Africa will take 3 percent of the market, with Eastern Europe and India owning a respective market share of 2 percent and 1 percent.
With a significant increase in freighters comes the increased cost of aircraft modifications, new components, and line, engine and airframe maintenance. Over the next 10 years MRO spend in the Middle East will rise from $5.4 billion in 2012 to almost $8.6 billion in 2021, according to OAG.
The biggest maintenance cost over the next 10 years in the Middle East will be engine repair, which is expected to rise at a CAGR of 4.1 percent. The cost allotted for components and line maintenance will also grow. The least costly problem, according to OAG data, will be modifications. But even with all the money reserved for maintenance on the Middle East’s aging aircraft, maintenance and repair spend in the region over the next 10 years will come to 0.6 percent less than the world average.