The air freight and express sectors will continue to grow in the mid-single digit range, despite record fuel prices, a shaky U.S. economy and the apparent modal shift of some air cargo shipments to ocean transport. So stated the Air Cargo Management Group's newly released International Air Freight and Express Industry Performance Analysis 2007.

"The growth rate for 2008 will be similar to last year, in the 4 percent to 5 percent range," said Robert Dahl, ACMG project director. "That figure is slightly below our long-term forecast of 6 percent annual growth." Revenue total was pushed up by higher fuel surcharges and currency exchange rate trends.

Combined annual revenue for airlines, forwarders and express companies "now exceeds $78 billion," said Dahl, with the express companies playing a much more prominent role in the international air freight business.

ACMG's latest analysis shows international express volumes grew from mid-2006 to mid-2007 to reach 2.261 million shipments per day. Express shipment volume growth has averaged 10 percent per year since 1992, and express traffic today is more than four times the level recorded 15 years ago, said the 200-page report.

In addition, the report found that all-cargo and combination carriers are employing new strategies such as product segmentation, joint ventures and alliances to increase their market share and profitability.

"Key indicators to watch for in 2008 include the degree to which consolidation continues in the airline, freight forwarding and express sectors, and signs of overcapacity based on the record number of widebody freighters on order by the world's airlines," said Dahl.

Robert W. Moorman