The global air cargo market will continue on a "strong, long-term growth" path over the next 20 years, averaging 5.8 percent annually and with the freighter fleet nearly doubling in size to 3,892 aircraft from today's total of 1,948 freighters, Boeing Co. says in its latest forecast.

In its Current Market Outlook, released Wednesday, Boeing says the growth rate will mean that a total 3,358 freighters will enter the fleet, assuming that 1,414 freighters are retired.

Fleet additions will include 863 new production freighters, with a value of about $206 billion in current U.S. dollars, and 2,495 freighters converted from passenger aircraft.

Wide-body freighters will dominate the new production freighter total, and 641 will be of the large freighter segment, or more than 80 tons of payload capacity. More than 60 percent of the fleet additions will be in the medium wide-body category with payloads of 40 to 80 tons.

"A shift toward larger freighters and new, more efficient airplanes will help keep air cargo transport affordable," Boeing said.

The outlook says freighters will continue to comprise about 10 percent of the world jetliner fleet, but they will be larger, and dedicated freighters will make up 54 percent of air-cargo capacity by 2027.

Boeing's Current Market Outlook is available on the company's Web site at: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/.

The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2008/2009, a more detailed study, will be issued at the 2008 International Air Cargo Forum and Exposition in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in November.

Bill DiBenedetto
The JOURNAL of COMMERCE ONLINE